When to Book Your 2020 Air Travel to Get the Cheapest Fares
Do you want to save a package? Forget everything you think you know about the best airfare and just follow this advice for flying during the pandemic.
Whether you are planning necessary short-term trips or dreaming about a long-term vacation, you may be curious to see how the coronavirus pandemic has affected flight prices.
We compared the data from our points and miles evaluation analysis to see where and how the airfare has changed since that time over the last year. We looked at the same routes, airlines and booking periods for 2019 and 2020 to ensure an apples-to-apples comparison.
Although air traffic has picked up significantly since the April lows, the Transportation Security Administration is still reporting around 63 percent fewer daily screenings than at that time last year. Has this drop in air travel demand resulted in a significant drop in prices?
The short answer is, yes, prices have fallen.
Prices have fallen, but mostly at short notice
The average cost of a domestic round-trip ticket decreased 23 percent in 2020, from $ 277 in 2019 to $ 214.
This drop in prices is striking, but not surprising given the persistently low demand. But the trend gets stronger when the dates on the booking date are broken out, with the dates made within 15 days going back much further than bookings made six months in advance.
The plot thickens.
The flight price for long-term bookings has remained constant year-on-year. If you book a flight for six months from now, you will likely pay about the same price as last year. But also short-term bookings within 15 days are not only significantly cheaper than in 2019, but also cheaper than long-term bookings.
This turns traditional fare booking wisdom on its head. We usually recommend booking flights as far in advance as possible to ensure cheap fares. But booking too far in advance is now a recipe to be fleeced.
" Learn more: How to plan vacation trips for maximum flexibility in 2020
What's happening?
Supply and pricing management is usually an exquisitely orchestrated dance, with airlines making sure that every flight is almost fully booked and every price is competitive. This usually means that the prices of almost full flights are raised at the last minute when the competition gets tougher.
However, with the demand dropping and the airlines actually ambushing themselves to reduce flight capacity, the game has changed. Airlines are now competing for last minute bookings, which is driving prices down. And they seem to be generating revenue by increasing the prices of longer term bookings made by those brave few souls willing to plan ahead. In other words, it's a buyer's market for close-in bookings.
Of course, like everything else this year, these price dynamics can change from week to week. If you're thinking of booking a particular route, set up a price alert on Google Flights or any other travel search tool and keep an eye on how the flight wind is blowing.
What do these unusual flight price trends mean for you? Keep it simple: avoid booking months in advance, set up a price alert, and try to break the normal (and usually smart) habit of avoiding last-minute bookings.
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Sam Kemmis is a writer at NerdWallet. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @samsambutdif.
The article "Why You Shouldn't Prebook a Flight Now" originally appeared on NerdWallet.
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